Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
